Netflix forecast to retain African market lead as SVOD subs to more than double by 2029

Blood & Water (Source: Netflix)

Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to add nine million paying SVOD subscriptions over the next five years, according to a new report from Digital TV Research.

The report suggests that the region will have achieved 16 million paying subs by 2029, up from the seven million total at the end of 2023.

Click to expand (Source: Digital TV Research)

South Africa and Nigeria will supply 59% (9.4 million) of the region’s total. However, African SVOD penetration will still be low by 2029, with only 7.1% of TV households paying for at least one subscription – although this is up from 4.7% at end-2023.

Blood & Water streamer Netflix will remain the SVOD market leader, with the report predicting 6.9 million subscribers by 2029. Showmax will be the second largest platform with 3.7 million paying subscribers. With its roll-out expected to be limited to South Africa, Disney+ will only have 905,000 subscriptions by 2029, said the report.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “SVOD is a battle between Netflix and regional player Showmax. Rich in local content and sports rights, Showmax now has access to NBCUniversal, Sony Pictures and HBO content. Showmax’s parent MultiChoice recently rejected a takeover bid from Canal Plus.”