Pay-TV revenues forecast to remain higher than online video

Maria Rua Aguete

Pay-TV revenue will still be greater than online video subscription revenue in 2028, despite online video subscriptions overtaking pay-TV in 2020, according to research powerhouse Omdia.

Speaking at the Connected TV World Summit in London today, Omdia’s media and entertainment research director, Maria Rua Aguete, presented data that highlighted the continued resilience of pay-TV globally in the face of the rise of online video streaming.

Global online video subscriptions will number 2.2 billion by 2028, growing from 1.1 billion in 2020, when streaming subs overtook pay-TV.

However pay-TV subscription revenue, though slowly declining, is still expected to be above streaming revenue at around US$181 billion.

Omdia’s data shows that while pay -TV’s market share has declined, subscriber numbers globally have remained largely stable. Pay-TV, with 1.069 billion subscribers globally, will have a 37% share against the 63% (1.792 billion) held by streaming this year.

By 2028, pay-TV’s market share is expected to be 33%, with around 1.066 billion subs, against streaming’s 67% with 2.186 billion subscribers.

Western Europe and Latin America will follow a broadly similar path, according to Omdia, with premium online services revenue growing, but not at the cost of pay-TV, which will decline very slowly.

In the Asia Pacific and Oceania region, on the other hand, while online video subscriptions will overtake pay-TV this year, pay-TV revenues will still be close to double online subscription revenues in 2028.