Disney+ is set to surpass $4bn in revenue from US subscriptions alone by 2022, according to eMarketer.
The firm noted that the streamer, which launched in 2019, amassed $130m in subscription revenues by the end of 2019, just a month and a half after being rolled out. It estimates that Disney+ will end 2020 with US subscription revenues of $1.94bn, rising to $2.87bn for 2021 and up to $4.23bn by the end of 2022.
The company said that Disney+ represents 26.5% of the Mouse House’s subscription OTT revenues in the country, with Hulu still dominating the business at 67.6%. Sports streamer ESPN+ makes up a more modest proportion of 5.8%.
eMarketer says that the two primary Disney streamers will cement it as the second-largest streaming player in the US based on subscription revenues. Its entire streaming division will be almost on a par with Netflix by 2022 in the US, with Netflix at $12.95bn and Disney at $12.36bn.
Eric Haggstrom, eMarketer forecasting analyst at Insider Intelligence, said: “Hit shows like The Mandalorian, Disney’s vast library, key distribution deals, and a massive marketing push drove strong initial growth in subscribers. It’s expected to continue to grow off that base as it ramps up content releases and brings some movies straight to the service, instead of a theatrical release in some cases.”
Disney’s expansion will also contribute to wider OTT growth in the US, with total revenues for the sector expected to increase by 29.9% in 2021 to $38.15bn. 2022 will see reduced growth of 19.4% as the sector reaches maturity.
Haggstrom added: “The subscription streaming landscape continues to expand. The good news for dominant player Netflix is that while new services like Disney+ have had successful launches, many consumers have been simply stacking services together.”