Why crime still pays in a contracting drama market

The Sixth Commandment

Crime dramas remain an opportunity for buyers and producers despite the cooling market, writes Nick Edwards.

Crime has always been seen as the dependable hero of the TV world, livening up linear schedules and adding intrigue to streamers’ slates. But do 2023’s headwinds mean the genre has finally met its match?

“Commissions are down across the board as everyone faces the current market difficulties and the same is true for crime shows,” says Rodrigo Herrera Ibarguengoytia, VP of scripted acquisitions & co-productions, at Red Arrow Studios. “But when compared directly with other genres, crime commissions remain more stable overall.”

In the UK, all buyers “remain active in the space,” says Richard Tulk-Hart, co-CEO of Buccaneer Media, which was behind Crime, the ITVX series that was adapted from Irvin Welsh’s novel.

Tulk-Hart says there is particular appetite for the genre when “it is very rooted in the UK,” but adds that crime “continues to be a very strong genre,” throughout Europe.

In North America too, scripted crime and thriller commissions continue to rise in popularity. According to Ampere Analysis, these genres increased between the second half of 2020 to the first half of 2023 both in terms of volume and share of overall titles – the only genre to do so. In addition to first-run titles, the number of scripted crime and thriller renewals increased nearly threefold in the first half of this year.

Crime scene investigation

However, like the first impressions from any crime scene, such instant takeaways must be taken with a dose of scepticism.

“Budgets in the last decade have rocketed without tariffs keeping pace. Right now, they have plateaued and we expect a downward pressure on talent and crew costs which will help – and which are way overdue,” continues Tulk-Hart.

In Canada, budgets are up too. This is due to a “triangle of reasons,” says Carolyn Newman, EVP of global scripted at Blink49 Studios, who cites “inflation, side effects from post-Covid and interest rates”.However, “while budgets are up, the real question is are the licence fees up or down? Licence fees seem to be status quo, which makes it harder to close the gaps,” she says.

The majority of producers have now come to terms with the fact that these headwinds are a long-term challenge. “The market rates remain and won’t adjust overnight.” says Herrera Ibarguengoytia. “While the budget could be reduced with a very economical and efficient production schedule, it risks leaving no room for error and being susceptible to inflation or other external factors.”

With audience expectations so high and the market so competitive, cutting production values is not an option. “We don’t do cuts that impact quality,” says Tulk-Hart, “we just find original ways of getting the same or better results in a pressurised environment.”

“Viewers expect a certain quality, so you can’t simply cut production budgets,” says Marcus Ammon, MD of content at Germany’s Bavaria Fiction. “Finding smart, time and cost-efficient production concepts is the key.”

And there is no magic money tree, so how will outlets and platforms strategise in these straightened circumstances? Herrera Ibarguengoytia suggests a likely outcome: “A trend of decreasing budgets is more likely to be determined by the projects being developed and commissioned; more grounded concepts that inherently require less ambitious budgets.”

Crime

Plotting & planning

With the amount of money producers have upfront declining, Hana Palmer, head of sales at Abacus Media Rights, says her company is “part-funding or arranging pre-sales” and “pulling together different parties for more and more projects in order to get them off the ground.”

The upheaval in the industry has also sparked a reversal in what linear channels and streamers traditionally make.

“There has always been a huge demand for crime. We are now seeing that trend with the streamers as they tend to commission less high end and less edgy programming and seem to be focusing on more mainstream genres. Cost efficient production and the necessity to grow their subscription base with local product has become more important,” says Ammon.

“In some ways, public service broadcasters seem like the ones taking risks successfully: shows such as SVT’s Blackwater in Sweden or Wild Mercury and the BBC’s The Sixth Commandment are examples of huge successes for shows that are a slow burn, intelligent, intense and very, very dark,” says Banijay’s Steve Matthews.

Formats are reflecting the changes too. “We are indeed seeing a trend for shorter, limited series with capped episodes for public broadcasters,” says Ammon. “At the same time, the demand for long-running, weekly linear self-contained shows is declining.”

“One-offs and minis are tricky to finance but there are green shoots with the likes of ITVX, which is able to do things they couldn’t when it was only a linear space,” explains Tulk-Hart. “Experimenting in our industry is where exciting shows get made. We need to get back to a space where making mistakes in commissioning is OK.”

Repeat offenders

For crime shows in the current environment, conceiving of series that have self-contained season story arcs but which retain the potential to return for further seasons make for a compelling pitch.

“In The Gone finale, the case is closed, giving the season a satisfying end and delivering a complete, self-contained series. But nevertheless, it also provides a cliffhanger allowing for ways to reopen the story and expand creatively with subsequent seasons,” says Herrera Ibarguengoytia.

Also worth noting is how The Gone came about: the show is an Irish-New Zealand co-production, produced by Kingfisher Films & Keeper Pictures in association with Southern Light Films for TVNZ and RTÉ.

Co-pros such as this provide financing for ambitious shows in crime, or indeed any genre. “They are in many ways essential, it’s either that or a co-commission in a certain budget range,” says Tulk-Hart, who adds that in terms of potential partnerships, “Australia and Italy are interesting.”

The uncertain times we live in are also reflected in audience tastes and there is an appetite for feel-good shows and procedurals. “What’s old is new again,” says Newman, pointing to Blink49’s Wild Cards, a procedural with a comedic twist.

“It’s a lean-back crime series with comedy sprinkled in that has a feeling of nostalgia, connection and easy watching,” she says. Wild Cards was created by Michael Konyves as the world emerged from the pandemic. “He wanted to create a light-hearted show that would make viewers smile and laugh so he pulled from inspiration that is familiar and nostalgic,” says Newman.

“The perceived wisdom is that if the world feels miserable, people like happy colourful shows that will cheer them up,” says Matthews. However, “people enjoy facing the darkness despite, or perhaps because of, the state of the world,” he says.

Scrublands

‘Emotional catharsis’

“There is still a need for emotional catharsis,” says Newman. In Sight Unseen, also from Blink49, “the lead character is faced with a life altering condition, yet she is still able to keep a sense of herself and overcome obstacles to live a life of what she sees as her purpose,” she says of the show, which is spearheaded by Karen Troubetzkoy (who has experienced sight issues first-hand) and sister Nikolijne.

“We find that there is demand for light, procedural crime such as Hope Street (we have S3 coming soon), it works for broadcasters in peak slots especially when there is high volume. And, also, for the more edgy, noir type series such as our new Catch Me A Killer and Scrublands,” says Palmer.

Crime’s ability to explore any theme means that what is often seen as a staid genre, that appeals to older people, can actually prove popular with younger audiences too. “Our young adult horror series Lost In Fear shows the causes and aftermath of a school rampage, and launches soon on ZDFneo,“ says Ammon.

A new addition to Red Arrow’s catalogue is the Australian short-form series Appetite, produced by Fell Swoop Productions and Photoplay for SBS. “The series follows three penniless food delivery riders brought together after their housemate mysteriously vanishes. The series’ satirical tone allows it to explore heavier social issues and shows the other side of convenience culture. Its fast pace and format makes the crime genre more accessible to a younger audience,” says Herrera Ibarguengoytia.

Demand for scripted crime shows has grown but there are more questions around true crime’s surging popularity on the factual side – Ampere data has reported a notable move away from this genre of non-scripted. This reflects the fact that commissioners feel they have potentially reached near saturation point with younger audiences and now want to appeal to older audiences – and they are investing in the kind of high-quality scripted shows they are fond of.

The US strikes have also created a potential window for more acquisitions from the rest of the world, but as Herrera Ibarguengoytia points out, “most broadcasters had an overflow of content and are therefore well placed to fill sudden gaps. The full effects of the strikes won’t be felt until late 2023 and into 2024, where demand for foreign content might rise.”

Like any good crime fighting hero, the crime genre remains as tenacious as ever, adapting to new market conditions as they arise. “Crime is still king and will continue to be,” says Ammon.