A new report has boldly predicted that Disney+ will surpass Netflix for subscribers by 2027.
Disney+ will add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to take its total to 271 million, according to Digital TV Research. Netflix, meanwhile, will add 53 million subscribers through the same period, taking it to a 2026 total of 275 million.
The research firm predicts that Disney will then take the lead the following year.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Our previous forecasts based on June 2021 results estimated that Disney+ would overtake Netflix in 2025. Based on the September 2021 results, we now expect that this will happen in 2027.
“Disney+ only started in six new countries during 2021. Delayed from 2021, the Eastern Europe launches will take place in 2022. This is likely to push back the remaining Asian launches to 2023.”
Disney+’s growth will be fuelled by 13 Asian countries where the streamer operates under the Hotstar brand. About 102 million of Disney+’ subscribers – 38% of the total – in 2026 will be based in Asia.
Overall, five major US-based platforms will control 53% of the world’s 1.7 billion SVOD subscriptions by 2026. This represents a total of 910 million subscribers by 2026 and over 300 million more than the 2021 total of 585 million.
The report also notes that HBO Max will have 83 million subscribers by 2026, up from 29 million by the end of 2021.