The expected recovery in advertising revenues across the eurozone will not materialise this year and there will be a sharper decline in ad spend than last year, according to new research.
ZenithOptimedia tracks advertising spend around the world and had previously forecast a recovery in Europe this year. However, in its latest update it noted the expected economic recovery will not now happen until 2014. It widened its forecast decline in revenue from 1.6% to 3.9%. Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain will suffer the sharpest declines and ad spend will fall 10.3% across these markets next year alone.
The wider eurozone numbers would still mark a recovery of sorts after last year’s 5.2% decline and the forecast is for growth next year.
Zenith noted: “Assuming that the eurozone economy begins to recover at the end of 2013, we expect ad expenditure to stabilise in 2014 – growing by 0.8% – followed by slow recovery in 2015, with 1.8% growth that year.”
Globally, the US will remain the largest advertising market and will also deliver the most new ad revenues to the cumulative total in the 2012-2015 period. However, the other major contributors to growth underline the changing face of global media with China delivering the second most new ad dollars ahead of Argentina, Indonesia and Russia.
In terms of total spend, the top ten ad territories will remain the same between 2012-2015 with the exception of France, which will slip out of the top ten and be replaced by Russia (see picture).
Globally, cumulative ad revenues will increase 3.5% this year, 5.1% next year and 5.8% in 2015, according to Zenith. Internet advertising will be by far the fastest growing category and mobile internet the fastest growing sub category.
TV will remain the largest medium, losing only a fractional share of the overall pie. Its share in 2012 was 40.1 and will be 39.5% in 2015.